SAN FRANCISCO
Lee Heidhues 5.24.2026
Trump does the “surrender” walk
Some commentators describe The Atlantic piece as War Hawk neo con talking points blasting Trump for “surrendering” to Iran.
Such talk is only correct by half. Yes Trump may be surrendering. But not for the reasons the War Hawks argue.
Trump is the prototype, for better and worse, transactional operator. He realizes belatedly the entire assault on Iran, pushed by Israel, has been a disaster from Day One on February 28, 2026. Now he is seeking an exit ramp realizing he’s made a shambles of the global economy and guaranteed the MAGA brand is going to take a beating on election day next November 3rd.
Excerpted from The Atlantic 5.21.2026 – Robert Kagan
According to one U.S. official, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s “hair was on fire” after the May 20th call with Donald Trump—for good reason.
The outlines of President Trump’s endgame in the Iran war are now emerging. In a phone call with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu May 20th, Trump reportedly explained that the United States was negotiating a “letter of intent” with Iran that would “formally end the war and launch a 30-day period of negotiations” on Iran’s nuclear program and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz
Trump’s repeated threats to resume attacks since then have proved to be bluffs. The leaders in Tehran have been calculating for two months that Trump would not launch another attack, and for this reason they have made no concessions despite the damage they suffered from 37 days of relentless strikes. On the contrary, their terms for a settlement are those of a victor: They demand war reparations, no limits on uranium enrichment, recognized control of the strait, and an end to sanctions.
The purpose and effect of such an agreement should be clear: The United States is walking away from the crisis. Trump may launch another limited strike to look tough and satisfy the demands of the war’s supporters, but it would be a performative gesture. Endgame in this case is a euphemism for “surrender.”
Trump no doubt hopes that he can slip away without Americans noticing the magnitude of this defeat. The financial markets may stabilize if it is clear that oil will eventually start flowing again through a reopened strait, even if under the new Iran-controlled system.
The Iran war may end up as the single most devastating blow to Israel’s security in its brief history. On the present trajectory, Iran will emerge from the conflict many times stronger and more influential than it was before the war. It will exercise leverage with dozens of the richest nations in the world, all of which will have an acute interest in keeping Iran happy. They will be unlikely to take Israel’s side in any conflict that it has with Tehran or with its proxies in Lebanon and Gaza, because Iran will have the means to punish them if they do. Israel will emerge more isolated than it has been at any time in its history—and not least from its only reliable protector, the United States. When Trump turns his back on Israel, as he must do to implement this policy, MAGA will gladly follow. The bipartisan anti-Israel consensus in the United States will grow and harden.
Lee's Perspective 